ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 XX00 UTC WED JUN 08 20XX AT XX00Z THE CENTER OF TYPHOON X WAS LOCATED NEAR LAT XX.X NORTH...LONG XXX.X WEST WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR XX KTS...XX MPH...XXX KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PAC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAW STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR GUIDANCE 50 KT COMMENT CUMULATIVE (BASED ON) SITE TC-COR PROBABILITY (PROBS ) ------------ ------ ----------- -------- NONE NONE ------------ ------ ----------- -------- TROPICAL STORM ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NOTES: TC-COR SETTINGS ARE BASED ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HURRICANE WATCHES/WARNINGS AND 64 KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. THEY ARE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR ONSET OF 50 KT WINDS AT MILITARY INSTALLATIONS. EACH SITE HAS ITS OWN SENSITIVITIES, WHICH THESE TC-COR SETTINGS DO NOT ADDRESS. THE FOLLOWING CUMULATIVE PROBABILITIES ARE USED FOR THE TC-COR THRESHOLDS: TC-COR4 5% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 72 H TC-COR3 6% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 48 H TC-COR2 8% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 24 H TC-COR1 12% PROBABILITY OF 50 KT AT 12 H END OF EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR GUIDANCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT